Felicia Magpantay (Queen’s University)

Math & Stats Department Colloquium

Friday, November 17th, 2023

Time: 2:30 p.m.  Place: Jeffery Hall, Room 234

Speaker: Felicia Magpantay (Queen’s University)

Title: Challenges in modeling the transmission dynamics of childhood diseases

Abstract: Mathematical models of childhood diseases are often fitted using deterministic methods under the assumption of homogeneous contact rates within populations. Such models can provide good agreement with data in the absence of significant changes in population demography or transmission, such as in the case of pre-vaccine era measles. However, accurate modeling and forecasting after the start of mass vaccination have proven to be more challenging. This is true even in the case of measles which has a well understood natural history and a very effective vaccine. We demonstrate how the dynamics of homogeneous and age-structured models can be similar in the absence of vaccination, but diverge after vaccine roll-out. We also present the different methods used to fit deterministic and stochastic models, and propose new techniques to fit long term time series with imperfect covariate information. The methods we develop can be applied to many types of complex systems beyond those in disease ecology.

Bio: Prof. Felicia Magpantay is an Associate Professor here at Queen’s, working in the fields of mathematical modeling and biomathematics, as well as differential equations, applied dynamics and applied probability. Prof. Magpantay obtained her Ph.D. in 2012 from McGill, then held postdoctoral positions at York University and the University of Michigan, and an assistant professor position at the University of Manitoba before joining Queen’s in 2017.