2022 was the bloodiest year for conflicts since 1994, the year of tragic genocides in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. 2023 looks unlikely to reverse the trend, while contending approaches to global order by rival powers mark divisions that seem increasingly insurmountable. The rise of ‘tit-for-tat’ measures since the initiation of the US trade war aimed at China has raised tensions and led to restructuring of domestic policies worldwide toward ‘resilience’ – a byword for anticipating conflict and the decreasing reliance on interdependence. Yet seen from a game-theoretic perspective, ‘tit-for-tat’ is a strategy that is not solely negative or hostile, but one that also contains its own solution, if positive actions can be reinforced. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) have been long considered a critical part of the security toolkit in the Indo-Pacific. Yet 30 years of their implementation have not seemed to have much effect as rivalries grow in the region. This seminar considers the prospects for rethinking CBMs as needs grow for addressing retaliatory actions and transactionalism in an age of competition.

Bio:

Dr Joel Ng is Research Fellow and Deputy Head of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore. His research focuses on regionalism, integration, security, and intervention norms, focusing on ASEAN and its dialogue partners as well as the African Union. He began his career in international affairs working in Uganda on peace, conflict, and refugee issues. He has also worked in the private sector in Singapore in public and investor relations. He is presently in the Singapore committee for the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP). Dr Ng is the author of Contesting Sovereignty: Power and Practice in Africa and Southeast Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2021). He has a DPhil from the University of Oxford, where he was an Oxford-Swire and Tan Kah Kee scholar, and also holds a MA (Distinction) from the University of Sussex, and a BA (Hons) from the University of East Anglia.